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By Lionel Laurent
PARIS, Feb 4 (Reuters) - A market rally has raised expectations that Belgium will sell its six billion-euro ($8.2 billion) stake in French bank BNP Paribas, leading the way for other indebted governments to recoup bank bailout funds from the 2008 financial crisis.
Banking sources say no official talks have begun but some see a deal happening within the year. A successful sale could encourage other countries with significant bank stakes such as Britain and the Netherlands to follow suit.
"It's possible that a deal will happen this year," an advisory banker familiar with the matter said. "Belgium needs the funds and there is still a bit of upside left in BNP's shares."
Belgium's economy has only seen one quarter of growth in the last six, pressuring the government to find new ways to cut the public deficit, while BNP's share price has soared more than 30 percent over the past 12 months. The STOXX Europe 600 banks index is up 12 percent over the same period.
"Talks have not yet officially begun on this," another banker said, but added that further share gains would bring the process closer.
Politician Wouter Beke flagged a potential sale in December, telling Tijd newspaper that Belgium's aim was not to remain a shareholder of BNP and that the timing of the sale would depend on the stock market.
"It would make sense for Belgium, even if the timing is not clear," said Yohan Salleron, fund manager at Mandarine Gestion in Paris.
Belgium took its 10 percent stake at 68 euros per share in 2008 as part of BNP's rescue of collapsed Benelux bank Fortis, seen today as one of the French bank's canniest acquisitions.
BNP shares today trade almost one third below that level, meaning Belgium would actually lose money at market prices, but investors and analysts say that interest from foreign bidders willing to pay a premium or the use of a convertible bond could offset this. An extended rally could also bump up the price.
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